🎲 1.1 – What Is Probability?
Probability means “How likely is something to happen?”
You see it every day:
- Will I pass my test? 🤞
- Will it rain today? ☔
- Will I get jollof or beans in the cafeteria? 🍚
Probability helps us stop guessing and start calculating!
🎯 The Probability Scale
The probability scale slides from 0 to 1:
| Word | Emoji | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Impossible | ❌ | 0 |
| Unlikely | 😕 | 0.25 |
| Even Chance | 🤷♂️ | 0.5 |
| Likely | 😃 | 0.75 |
| Certain | ✅ | 1 |
💬 Let's Break Each One Down!
❌ Impossible (0)
No way. Zero chance. Not happening.
Example: A person growing 5 heads 👽
That’s a 0 on the probability scale.
😕 Unlikely (~0.25)
It could happen… but probably won’t.
Example: You waking up with purple hair without dyeing it 💜🧑🎤
🤷♂️ Even Chance (0.5)
A fair game. You’ve got a 50-50 shot!
Example: Tossing a coin – Head or Tail? 🪙
Either one has the same chance.
😃 Likely (~0.75)
Very possible — just not guaranteed.
Example: You’ll eat something today 😋
Not 100%, but… yeah, pretty likely.
✅ Certain (1)
It will happen. No doubt.
Example: January 1st is New Year’s Day 🎉
There’s no other option — that’s a 1!
📦 1.2 – Probability Words You Must Know
Let’s unlock the probability vocabulary chest 🗝️:
🎲 Random – Happens without planning or pattern. Example: Picking a student from class randomly means everyone has an equal chance.
🔥 Event – Something that happens — like tossing a coin or rolling a dice. All possible results = Sample space
🎯 Outcome – The result of an event. If you toss a coin → Head or Tail. These are the 2 outcomes. If the result is what you want, we call it a favourable outcome!
🔁 Trial – One try or test in an experiment. Each time you toss a coin, that's one trial.
🧪 Experiment – A process or activity you repeat to collect data. Tossing a dice 50 times is an experiment.
✅ Favourable Outcome – The result you're hoping for. If you want to roll a 6, getting a 6 is the favourable outcome.
📦 Sample Space – All the possible outcomes of an event. For a dice, the sample space is: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
📈 Relative Frequency – How often something happens, compared to all the trials. If you get 5 heads in 10 tosses, relative frequency is 5/10 = 0.5
🧠 Theoretical Probability – What should happen, based on logic (not experiments). Theoretical chance of rolling a 3 on a dice is 1/6.
🔬 Experimental Probability – What actually happens when you try something out. If you roll a dice and get a 3 two times out of six rolls, that's experimental probability.
🚫🔁 Mutually Exclusive Events – Two things that can't happen at the same time. You can't get both a Head and a Tail in one coin toss.
🔗 Independent Events – One event doesn't affect the other. Rolling one dice doesn't affect the outcome of a second dice.
🧠 Quick Win: The Probability Formula
✨ Time to Show What You Know
Let’s turn those brains into badges! 🧠🏅